Pak Sahafat – Experts estimate the amount of economic damage caused by the Kahraman Marash earthquake for the crisis-ridden economy of this country, which is much higher than expected.
According to the report of Pak Sahafat International News Agency, the earthquake in Kahraman Maresh province and 9 surrounding provinces in Turkey has killed 30,000 people and the number of injured has exceeded 80,000. The evidence shows that this earthquake, as it has been said many times in Turkish media, is really the “calamity of the century” and the experts’ estimate of the economic losses of the Hero Maraesh earthquake for the crisis-ridden economy of this country is much higher than expected.
84 billion and one hundred million dollars in damages
Bloomberg Turkey has published a report today that sheds light on the terrible dimensions of the Hero Maresh earthquake. Based on this report, TÃœRKONFED commercial-financial group has prepared a report on the economic effects of the Kahraman Maresh earthquakes using field data and comparative statistical analysis with previous examples. In this report, it is calculated that the mentioned earthquake will cause 84.1 billion dollars in financial damage using the method of comparative statistical analysis of Marmara earthquake data.
The Confederation of Turkish Companies and Trade (TÃœRKONFED) has announced that forecasts for the estimation of human and financial losses have been prepared based on the data of the 1999 Marmara earthquake, which shows that the coming days will be very difficult for Turkey; Because the death toll is going to increase all of a sudden. Until today, the rescuers were cautious in removing the debris, and they worked with low speed and high precision, fearing that the injured might be injured under the debris. But little by little, the hope of citizens’ survival has decreased and the speed of debris removal has increased. As a result, the current 30,000 casualties will be passed very soon and more bitter figures will be published.
In the 1999 dollar table, the death toll in the Marmara earthquake was 18,373 and the financial damage was 17.1 billion dollars. But it is predicted that the recent earthquake in Turkey will reach such bitter figures in the last days:
72 thousand 663 people lost their lives.
$84.1 billion in financial damage.
It is estimated that 70.75 billion dollars of this damage will be brought to the industry and trade sector; Housing damage is 10.4 billion dollars and loss of income is 2.91 billion dollars of working days. In this report, it is estimated that in parallel with the reduction of the share of earthquake-affected provinces in the national income, the export of 10 provinces exposed to this disaster may reach below 15 billion dollars. The deterioration of port infrastructure will increase and the ratio of budget deficit to national income may exceed 5.4%.
The budget deficit for 2023 is estimated at 659.6 billion liras. Bloomberg estimates that public spending on earthquakes could be as much as 5.5 percent of GDP. In the current situation, the budget deficit can be expected to exceed at least 1 trillion lira.
According to Bloomberg’s data analysis, infrastructure damage has been collected under seven different and separate headings. These 7 main titles are listed as follows:
Transportation
Although the General Administration of Roads announced that no road is blocked for traffic, but according to the announcement dated February 8, problems continue at Khatai Airport and Khatai-Rihanli road. According to information and field pictures, the roads of many cities and villages are not open for traffic. There have been many landslides on the roads, especially Ghazi Antab, Khatai, Osmania, Adiyaman-Cheli Khan roads. While the repairs are still ongoing, the road infrastructure needs to be rebuilt in some places and additional funding is needed.
Electricity industry and transmission network
Transformer points were destroyed in a significant part of the earthquake affected provinces and in some areas the power distribution network was damaged to the point of complete blackout. It is believed that restarting the transformer and network facilities will take a long time and will be done at the expense of large funds. Although the problems of the main energy transmission facilities and lines have been resolved, the problems in the intra-city distribution sectors in some provinces continue.
Natural gas
After the earthquake, there were explosions in the natural gas pipelines, and the Turkish National Butash Company had to quickly cut off the gas flow to Antab, Khatai and Kahraman Maresh. In the main transmission lines of BOTAÅž, breakdowns and ruptures have occurred, and severe damage has been caused by aftershocks in the repaired areas.
Oil lines
BOTAÅž stopped the flow of oil to the terminal to inspect the facility after the first earthquake on Monday, but said no leaks or damage were found. BOTAÅž transferred the flow of crude oil to the Ceyhan export terminal on the Mediterranean coast on Tuesday, February 7. Within hours, transmission was restarted and the Kurdistan Region confirmed that oil was continuing to flow.
Connections
Although telecommunication services in the provinces of the region with 11.5 million mobile phone subscribers have not been completely stopped, serious disruptions still exist. According to the statement of the Association of Mobile Telecommunications Operators, of which Turkcell, Turk Telecom and Vodafone are members, 2,451 base stations have been deactivated, 190 high-cost portable mobile phone stations have been dispatched and 3,485 generators have been ordered urgently by operators to meet energy needs. However, more disturbances persist in villages and cities.
Hospitals
Block A of Iskenderun Government Hospital, which was used for intensive care services, was completely destroyed by the earthquake. Also, two government hospitals in Khatay province were destroyed. Many private hospitals were also destroyed or severely damaged.
Schools
Official information on the number of destroyed schools has not yet been announced, but field information indicates widespread destruction in urban and rural areas.
Financial experts have advised the Erdogan government:
Legislation to support earthquake-affected companies should be put on the agenda, and organizations should be given the opportunity to move “towards better urban planning against earthquakes”.
In the processes of reconstruction and economic recovery after the earthquake, the issue should be examined in the framework of the economic development approach based on the market economy, and the government should stop providing reckless financial support to government institutions.