Pak Sahafat – Yahoo News, referring to the results of the latest polls, two months before the mid-term elections in the United States, announced the improvement of the position of the Democrats compared to the Republicans and the increase of the possibility of victory of the party supporting Joe Biden in this election.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency’s report, in the report of this American media, it is stated: The results of the latest polls in America show that after months of mistakes, misfortunes and bad luck, “Joe Biden” and his party members are now waiting for better news on the eve of the mid-term elections.
In an article titled “New polls show that Democrats are likely to win the 2022 mid-term elections,” Yahoo News reported. Do you approve of it: Abortion laws, climate change, a popular plan to cut drug prices, lower gas prices, and increased legal problems for Donald Trump appear to be on the way if he gets elected will be a tough challenger for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024, increasing Biden’s chances? At the same time, the results of the latest polls indicate a better position for the Democrats in key competitions across the country.
This American media continued by raising the question whether this is enough for the Democrats to win the upcoming November elections, and noted: Until now, the results of the polls indicated that Biden’s popularity had fallen to a historic level compared to other American presidents, and indicated the low chances of his party for the mid-term elections in the fall. But according to the latest results of the Five Thirty Eight poll, the Democrats are likely to win the field.
According to Yahoo News, a look at the pattern governing mid-term elections in the United States shows that since World War II, 19 mid-term elections have been held in this country, and in 16 of these, the president’s party has at least five seats in the parliament has lost the same number of seats that the Republicans can win again this year.
On the other hand, according to the experience of the mid-term election results of the past years, the probability of the Democrats’ defeat in the House of Representatives elections is 84%. Because Americans in most cases vote against the president in the mid-term elections.
On the other hand, taking into account the current situation in the United States, including the low level of popularity of Biden as the worst president in the modern history of the United States and the astronomical inflation in this country, which has reached the highest level since the 1980s and is a disaster for the Democrats.
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According to the results of Five Thirty Eight data analysis database, in the last month, the average disapproval of Biden has decreased by more than two points, and at the same time, his popularity has increased by nearly three points. However, this amount does not have much impact on Biden’s situation and his net acceptability should grow by at least 16 points.
Referring to the two months remaining until the mid-term elections, this media adds: Since most voters are still not fully aligned and the Democrats must win the national popular vote by at least a few percentage points in order not to lose seats in the parliament.
According to this report, the Democrats still have a long way to go to reach this threshold. They currently lead the Republicans by an average of half a point and have a good chance of winning, and according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model, the GOP’s chance of winning the majority is 77%, and their probability of victory has decreased over the past 10 months.
Referring to the fact that Mitch McConnell, the leader of the majority of the Senate, has admitted that one of the reasons for the decrease in the probability of the Republican victory is the lack of a suitable candidate for the party, Yahoo News has explained that the candidates of this party, all of whom were approved by Trump, So far, they have shown poor performance in competitions.
According to the latest FiveThirtyEight survey, the Republican Party has 37% supports compared to 63% support for the Democrats.
A Yahoo News survey in collaboration with YouGov polling base also shows that Democratic voters are worried about Trump’s re-election. 72 percent of them say that another Trump term is the worst thing that could happen to America, and many say that “democracy” is their top priority for voting in the upcoming November election.
In the end, this media emphasizes that there are still two months left until the mid-term elections and the Democrats should wait and see if the situation can turn out to be different for Biden, considering the pattern that prevails in the mid-term elections since the Second World War.