Pak Sahafat/ The Taliban is trying to keep extremist forces with them as it seeks international recognition and legitimacy; In the event of a fall, the forces will be attracted to the current dangerous rival in Afghanistan, ISIS.
Although the Taliban have been able to seize power in our eastern neighbor after 20 years of American presence in Afghanistan, taking advantage of public discontent as well as ethnic and ideological support, this time with different and sometimes more serious challenges than governing the country. One of the problems of the Taliban is a challenge such as the Golan branch of ISIL, which is in conflict with the Taliban in various fields.
The Taliban announced a few days ago that ISIL leader Abu Omar Khorasani had been shot dead in Afghanistan while escaping from prison on August 17, two days after the Taliban took control of Kabul.
Earlier, Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s deputy minister of information and culture, said that ISIL posed no threat to Afghanistan and that we could control the group completely.
In recent weeks, as the Taliban have put the establishment of the Islamic Emirate on the agenda, ISIL has posed many challenges to Afghanistan’s new rulers.
The bloody attacks by the Khorasan branch of ISIS on Taliban forces in Jalalabad and the earlier attack on Kabul airport in early September, which left dozens dead and wounded, show the extremist group’s rivalry with the Taliban, which seeks to establish a stronghold in Afghanistan and on the other hand to gain international legitimacy for itself.
Taliban, ISIS and rivalry over Afghanistan
Although the Taliban and ISIS are both Sunni Islamist groups with many similarities that regulate their actions with the overall goal of establishing an Islamic government based on sharia, there are many differences between them in terms of demographic composition of members and field of activity. The two groups are in fierce competition for resources, recruitment and territory in eastern and northern Afghanistan.
While the Taliban plan to establish an Islamic state in Afghanistan and the border areas with Pakistan, ISIL, and consequently the Khorasan branch of the group, is establishing an Islamic caliphate over a wide area from the Middle East, North Africa and southern Europe to the Caucasus, Central Asia and it has put Afghanistan and Pakistan and even parts of Iran and India at their peak.
The Taliban first came to power in 1996 during Afghanistan’s civil war with financial support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan’s logistical support. The Taliban regime collapsed after the US-led coalition invaded Afghanistan in 2001 under the pretext of retaliating for Osama bin Laden-led al-Qaeda’s attack on the World Trade Center in New York.
Since then, the Taliban, as an opposition group, has had the recapture of Afghanistan from the occupiers on its agenda and has continued to operate in the context of Afghan society over the years.
The Khorasan branch of ISIS, however, had just established its so-called Islamic government in 2015 in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar and began recruiting disaffected Taliban forces. During its heyday, Khorasan ISIL recruited thousands of fighters and seized Taliban-held territory in Nangarhar, Kunar and Jawzjan, Afghanistan. Scattered Taliban wars with ISIL Khorasan continued for years until ISIL Khorasan cadres and leadership suffered heavy casualties following the Taliban attacks and Afghan army operations in 2019.
The collapse of the government in Afghanistan has once again provided the grounds for the maturation and activity of ISIL Khorasan in Afghanistan. In particular, ISIL prisoners and a large number of prisoners were released or escaped from Afghan prisons. Observers now believe that ISIL Khorasan has rebuilt itself as a network of underground cells in city centers such as Jalalabad and Kabul and some nearby areas such as Logar province.
The Taliban, meanwhile, is committed to fighting Islamic extremist groups, including ISIS, in accordance with its commitments in the Doha talks.
Differences between the Taliban and ISIS
What is happening in practice is that the more radical Taliban, including the Haqqani network, are becoming more intellectually close to ISIS these days. If considerations of legitimacy and international aid lead the Taliban interim government to moderation, it will not be to the liking of the group’s more extremist factions and will push them further toward ISIS.
This becomes all the more important when we know that the Haqqani Network was responsible for securing Kabul in the days when ISIL attacked its airport. Some have even speculated about security breaches in the Kabul airport bombings.
Shahab al-Muhajir, the current commander of ISIL extremists in Afghanistan, was one of the former Taliban commanders who is currently seeking to recruit and expand ISIL influence in Afghanistan.
From the observers’ point of view, any ill-considered action by the Taliban and local disputes between the group’s commanders could be used as an opportunity by ISIL Khorasan.
Meanwhile, the United Nations and international agencies are warning of poverty, food shortages and unemployment in Afghanistan. This will pave the way for more ISIL recruitment among Afghans.
On the other hand, some observers believe that the strengthening of ISIS is part of a new US plan to influence Central Asian countries in order to put Russia and China in a tight spot. The group believes previous US plans and strategies to infiltrate Central Asian countries through the Taliban have failed, but this time it is trying to use ISIS to further its own interests.
Some experts believe that the threat of ISIS in Afghanistan is not as serious as it is propagated. Earlier, Abdul Haq Wasiq, a member of the Taliban’s political bureau in Qatar, condemned US airstrikes in Afghanistan under the pretext of fighting ISIS, saying the United States was exaggerating the terrorist group’s presence.
Wasiq stating that “It is not possible to establish a base for ISIS in Afghanistan,” said: The world has made something of ISIL (in its mind), but in Afghanistan it is not possible to implement ISIL’s vision and thinking.
What is certain is that events such as the attack on Taliban forces in Jalalabad or the attack on Kabul airport put ISIL in the center of political and media attention in Khorasan. Utilizing the propaganda and media capacities is one of ISIL’s constant strategies to intimidate. Many believe that ISIL does not have much power to assert itself in Afghanistan after its defeats in Syria and Iraq.
However, the main security concern of regional and global powers is to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for Takfiri terrorists. Khorasan ISIL is a powerful threat to the Taliban government due to its ability to recruit disaffected Taliban fighters and carry out sophisticated attacks on civilians and government facilities, and could become a major direct challenge to the Taliban.