The main goal: to reduce China’s influence in Central Asia or to intensify competition between the United States and China.
In the final stages of the Trump administration in November 2020, the name “East Turkestan Islamic Movement”, formerly known as a terrorist organization, was removed from the list of terrorist organizations. The move would allow the Biden government to use a variety of tools to compete with China, and to exploit the East Turkestan Islamic Movement as the “National Liberation Organization” or otherwise known.
The escalation of competition between the United States and China around the world, including in Central Asia, will not have positive consequences because it can cause unpredictable problems for countries in the region. For example, if foreign terrorist groups and militias based in northern Afghanistan take action against Beijing, the Central Asian region will face serious security challenges.
Secondary goal: reduce Russia’s influence in Central Asia or intensify US competition with Russia
According to various Russian experts, the large US presence in Central Asia is primarily against China, and competition with Russia is a secondary goal that could become the number one goal if necessary.
Russia has managed to maintain significant influence in Central Asia, which is not easy to reduce, but recent experience suggests that this is possible. New Western measures to reduce Russia’s influence in the region’s information space by supporting new media in Central Asian (official) languages ​​may be effective in the long run because they are fundamentally directed against rival countries.
Therefore, in general, the intensification of the rivalry between the United States and Russia in Central Asia will not have positive consequences for the region.
Expanding cooperation in the framework of the “5 + 1” format (Central Asian countries and the United States)
It considers the approach of preventing extremism and terrorism, as well as economic and infrastructure interactions. US-sponsored projects will link Afghanistan and Central Asia. Today, some other Uzbek experts see Afghanistan as part of Central Asia, which could erode post-Soviet understanding of the region and lead to fundamental change.
Russia and China are likely to make every effort to prevent the establishment of a US military base in Central Asia. Thus, the competition that appears in the Central Asian media space with the support of these countries will become more serious.
Intensified competition between world powers in Central Asia will increase the likelihood of various events in the region’s neighborhood (for example, in Xinjiang) or within the region (for example, the Fergana Valley or inter-ethnic conflicts) because of the base. The military presence of different countries in the region, while on the one hand creating a balance, on the other hand will reduce the level of security of all countries.
In other words, the presence of a foreign military base not only has a positive effect on security, but also poses certain threats.
It is noteworthy that in the last four years in Central Asia, many measures have been taken to reduce the sources of domestic threats, and today a new system of bilateral and multilateral relations is being formed and is gradually being strengthened. If a military base is established, the current situation will change and the competition of foreign powers will have an adverse effect on the natural process of cooperation and convergence of the countries in the region.