Pak Sahafat – The Guardian newspaper wrote on Sunday, in an article titled “Preparing America’s Conditions for Political Violence”, that Americans are increasingly talking about civil war and nearly half of the country’s citizens are worried about the disintegration of their country in the next 10 years.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency; Barbara Walters, an American political scientist and the author of the book “How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them”, writes on the website of the London-based Guardian, on the eve of the November 8 mid-term elections for the US Congress: The use of the phrase and hashtag “Civil War” on the Twitter network increased by 3,000 percent after the FBI raid on the home of former US President Donald Trump in August. Trump supporters immediately tweeted that they would start a civil war if he was impeached. Trump himself predicted that if the fuse of political sensitivities and violence is not pulled down in this country, terrible events will happen.
Perhaps the most difficult situation is the belief of Americans on both sides of the polarized political spectrum that violence is justified. In January 2022, 34% of American citizens said in a survey that sometimes the use of violence against the government is justified, and seven months later, more than 40% of them said that they believed that a civil war might occur in at least the next 10 years. While 2 years ago, no citizen spoke about the Second American Civil War, but these words have become very common now.
Addressing questions about the possibility of another civil war in the United States, Ms. Walters said following the publication of his book on civil wars: The beliefs of American experts and citizens about the Second Civil War are based on the misconception that it is similar to the First Civil War, which is false.
According to him, maybe the second civil war of the United States is a guerrilla war between small militia groups across the country and their targets are citizens and mainly racial and religious minority groups, leaders of opposition groups and federal government employees, and the assassination of judges and Republicans will be falsely accused, jailed, bombed, black Christian and Jewish places of worship.
He added: Although the United States is not yet in a state of civil war, according to a CIA report on the signs of insurgency, which was declassified in 2012, when the constant violence by extremists who are increasingly active in the form of violent extremists start attacking not only people but also the very important infrastructures of the country such as hospitals, bridges and educational centers with advanced weapons such as bombs, the country has become an open rebellion. These attacks are carried out by a larger number of fighters, some of whom have experience and combat background, and often there is evidence of their infiltration and subversion operations in the army, law enforcement and security forces, and intelligence organizations.
Experts still doubt that the incident of January 6, 2021, in the United States, is one of such series of permanent attacks, and this apparently has not happened yet due to the FBI’s persistent countermeasures. The agents of this force have arrested more than 700 participants in this riot and accused 225 people of attacking, resisting and obstructing the police forces or congress workers.
Read more:
The Guardian’s report of the prevalence of second and third jobs among Americans to meet expenses
According to civil war experts, 2 important factors put countries at high risk of civil war, one of these factors exists in the United States, and this country is dangerously close to the second factor. The first factor is “ethnic grouping” that occurs when the foundation of organizing citizens in political parties is based on ethnic, religious or racial identity instead of belief. The second factor of “anocracy” is when the government is neither completely democratic nor completely autocratic and is in the middle. Usually, civil war does not occur in healthy, complete and strong democratic systems, and it rarely occurs in autocratic governments. Violence almost always occurs in countries with weak and unstable pseudo-democratic governments. Anocracy combined with ethnic grouping creates a dangerous combination.
Walters adds in another part of this article: The United States is a perfect study example of a country on a civil war path that is increasingly one-sided. The American democratic system between the years 20216 and 2020 has often been quickly ignored and has not been able to strengthen any aspect of the democratic system since January 6, 2021, which has exposed this system to the vulnerability of a permanent retreat towards the middle region.
No civil war has only one cause and several factors always lead to its decline and collapse. Several factors of what the CIA calls “threat exacerbating” are present in the United States today, including the ongoing damage of the environmental crisis, economic inequality at the highest level since the country’s founding, and a shift in the demographic map that suggests this country will become a land belonging to the white minority only in a period of more than 20 years. All these factors have contributed to the creation of internal unrest in various parts of the world.
But the greater vulnerability of the United States to political violence compared to other countries is due to the exhaustion and incapacity of its institutions. Public trust in all kinds of institutions in this country in the past 40 years, such as the church, police, press and universities, has been in a state of free fall, and the level of trust in politicians will hardly decrease from this, and there is no reason for trust. The constitution, which was undoubtedly the work of geniuses of the 18th century, cannot reflect or react to the realities of the 21st century.
Pseudo-legitimacy leads to violence, and American political institutions are now moving more and more towards pseudo-legitimacy. One of the most reliable signs of the beginning of civil war in other countries is the transformation of the judicial system from a non-partisan, independent and truly national institution to a corrupt partisan institution that occurred in the United States.
He added: Election-related violence usually occurs when the following factors exist: Highly competitive elections leading to a complete transfer of power. Party differences based on identity, electoral systems in which the winning party will own the entire country and no share will go to the defeated party, and political identities will be polarized in them, and there is no will to punish the violence committed by the dominant and victorious party. Not only are all these factors present in America today, but they will be strengthened and intensified in 2024.
Barbara Walters concludes that America is undoubtedly heading for another civil war, and the only question is when it starts, and expect the next civil war after the 2024 election cycle, when the next wave of violence is likely to emerge. I bet there will be civil war along with terrorism, guerilla warfare and ethnic cleansing across the US and eventually race and racism will burn this country down.