Pak Sahafat – Mao’s communist revolution in China strained Washington’s relationship with Beijing; until the diplomacy of the sport of “ping pong” improved the relations between the two countries. However, in recent years, relations between China and the United States have deteriorated, and many attribute this situation to the pre-World War III situation.
At the beginning of the 20th century, and especially after the “Xinhai”* revolution led by “Sun Yat Sen” in 1911, which ended the Chinese imperial system, the United States was considered among the supporters of the national government of the Republic of China.
(The Xinhai Revolution, also called the Revolution of 1911 and the Chinese Revolution, was a popular uprising that led to the fall of the last imperial dynasty in Chinese history (the Qing Dynasty) and the establishment of the Republic of China. This revolution was called Xinhai because it happened in 1911. And this year, according to the Chinese calendar, is called the year of Xinhai.)
The root of this support goes back to America’s attempt to contain Japan, which was at war with China. However, after the revolution of Mao (“Mao Tsetung” the leader of the Communist Party) in 1949, which fled the national government near the west in China to the island of Taiwan, the tension in the relationship between the two countries began.
The former government had gone to Taiwan and claimed sovereignty over all of China from there. (Now the government of Taiwan, centered in Taipei, calls itself the “Republic of China”, which is different from the “People’s Republic of China”, which is based in Beijing.) The communist central government was formed in China and claimed one China, and believed that Taiwan should one day be Return to the mainland.
Taiwan, the center of conflict between China and the United States
As a result of these events, the confrontation between Beijing and Taiwan, both of which claimed sovereignty over all of China, became the focus of the conflict between Washington and Beijing. In 1955, the Chinese central government’s push to retake Taiwan ended with the US threatening a nuclear attack. Until 1971 (for 22 years), the United States refused to admit Communist China’s representatives to the United Nations and still recognized the Chinese National Government based in Taiwan as the representative of all of China.
However, after China’s first nuclear test in 1964, which brought the country into the club of nuclear powers, as well as after the Sino-Soviet border conflict in 1969, the United States’ attitude toward Communist China changed. In the first sign of warming relations, the Chinese government invited the US national ping pong team to this country in 1971; this was the first official visit of an American to China since 1949. In the history of China-US relations, this issue is known as “Ping-Pong” diplomacy, which paved the way for the establishment of relations between the two countries.
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In June of the same year, “Henry Kissinger”, the then US Secretary of State, made a secret trip to China to meet and talk with the country’s officials. Later, with the visit of the then American President Richard Nixon to China and the signing of the Shanghai Declaration, the relations between the two countries were on the path of normalization.
In this statement, the issue of Taiwan became one of the main topics of discussion. According to American diplomats, Chinese officials and Mao personally, despite their attachment to Taiwan, agreed to prevent a military attack on Taiwan for the time being in order to improve the situation.
In 1979, US President Jimmy Carter announced the severance of normal relations with Taiwan, recognized the one-China policy, and officially established US-China relations. In fact, this year, the United States recognized the People’s Republic of China instead of the Taipei government as the central government of all of China.
Cooperation gave way to confrontation
Until recent years, when the United States publicly and officially introduced China as a threat and dealt with it, China’s development was supported by the United States. Of course, this approach was designed during the Cold War with the aim of strengthening China against Soviet influence, and it was successful. Many analysts believe that the rise of China’s power with the support of the United States paved the way for the collapse of the Soviet Union.
However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, support for China had another purpose. Behind this approach, there was an idea that assumed that China’s economic development would necessarily transform the country into a liberal democracy that would side with the United States like the European powers.
These ideas were formed by the spread of theories such as “the end of history” which presented the defeat of the Soviet Union as the eternal victory of liberalism in the world. However, although US investment in China helped the country grow, China did not become a liberal democracy.
For years, many experts have warned that China’s attachment to its historical identity will not allow it to be assimilated into the liberal American order like Japan, South Korea, Germany and others. On the other hand, according to realist experts, even the transformation of China into a liberal democracy could not stop the possible competition between China and America. Just as the United States tried to build a backyard for itself in South America with the “Monroe Doctrine”, now China is also looking for the same issue in East Asia.
(* The Monroe Doctrine _Monroe Doctorine_ was an American political doctrine that was announced by “James Monroe”, the president of the United States at the time, in 1823. This doctrine was against colonialism or the intervention of European powers in the newly independent countries of the American continent.)
American presidents started a trade and political war with China by warning about the rise of China as a great power. The Americans committed their second analytical error against this country by assuming that the development of China’s power will encourage Beijing to behave like Hitler. Instead of emphasizing the balance of power between China and its neighbors, which could create a balance between the United States and China, the United States has increased the confrontation and tensions and has brought these two countries to the border of military threats with aggressive rhetoric.
However, China’s view of Hitler’s behavior is flawed in several ways. Unlike Nazi Germany, China is not “forced to go to war”. China wants revisions, but because of economic priorities, it does not want to make these changes aggressively. Nazi Germany was in a position where it felt humiliated and had to change the circumstances of the European order by war. However, the Chinese are only looking for respect worthy of a great power and do not need war.
The same situation was created by America against Russia, which led to the war in Ukraine. As for China, for years the United States had tried to avoid provoking the Chinese over Taiwan by accepting the sovereignty of one China. However, at the same time as the tensions between the United States and China increase, the American intervention in Taiwan has also intensified.
Two opposing views on preventing war
According to some experts, the current situation between the two countries has become a security conflict and can be compared to a new cold war. Some even believe that China’s capabilities are greater than that of the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War; for this reason, there are some concerns about the possibility of the situation becoming critical and the occurrence of war.
Some experts consider this situation normal; it is natural for China to seek to increase its power, and on the other hand, it is natural for the United States to resist it.
John Mersheimer, a professor of international relations at the University of Chicago, calls this situation a “tragedy of great power politics.” He blames the United States because it has caused the rapid rise of China through interaction and cooperation. According to him, a war between China and the United States is possible and the probability of its occurrence is much higher than a possible war between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Mersheimer considers the creation of this situation to be related to the nature of the international system; As a result, he believes that the security competition between the two countries is inevitable and cannot be stopped; However, the United States can prevent the security competition from turning into war by maintaining and strengthening its East Asian partners, reminding them of the possibility of using nuclear weapons, and clarifying the red lines for China. Therefore, according to this group of experts, putting more pressure on China is the way to prevent war.
He believes that diplomacy by emphasizing common values ​​helps prevent war. According to Kissinger, the United States should try to prevent the escalation of tensions by creating a new order with the cooperation of China, India and Europe. As a result, according to him, it is possible to prevent the war by reducing the pressure on China, including by reducing the rhetoric about Taiwan.
According to these two views, it is clear that the future of the world is affected by the security competition between China and the United States. A problem that is most likely impossible to avoid; However, it can be hoped that the management of the relations between the two countries, with the solutions that are in conflict and contradictory, will prevent this security confrontation from being drawn into a war.