Fatemeh Nekoul Aal Azad writes in a note for Iranian diplomacy: In fact, given the anti-American sentiment in Iraq and the emergence of a new wave of opposition to the US presence among militant groups and political currents, they consider the possibility that The political, military, security, and even economic costs of the US presence in Iraq after the assassinations of Sardar Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Mohandes have risen to such an extent that the US government has been forced to withdraw its forces from Iraq; But the emphasis on the withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq means that the withdrawal of the United States is not a complete and comprehensive withdrawal.
Iranian diplomacy: The US military presence in Iraq dates back to the years following the 2003 invasion. At this time, the strategy of the George W. Bush administration was to increase forces in Iraq to counter the insurgency of Sunni militias and to stabilize Iraq.
Under Barack Obama, the United States put the strategy of withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan on its agenda. That is why US forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011 after Obama failed to reach a security agreement with the government of Nouri al-Maliki.
The rise of ISIS, however, upset the equation and the security situation in Iraq was such that the prime minister was forced to ask the United States to send troops to Iraq to fight ISIS.
In 2014, Haidar al-Abadi called on the United States for military assistance, which led to the presence of US combat troops in Iraq.
According to the agreements, whenever the Iraqi government requests, the United States is obliged to withdraw its forces from Iraq. Although the withdrawal of US troops gradually became part of Iraq’s domestic politics after the defeat of ISIS in Iraq, what accelerated the plot was the US assassination of Sardar Soleimani and his entourage in December 2017, which created an anti-US wave in Iraq. The most important public reaction to this move is to raise the issue of the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. In the very first days after the assassination, the Iraqi parliament approved the plan to expel American troops from Iraqi territory in an emergency session. Iraqi officials also condemned the move, and various Shiite movements called for the expulsion of US troops. Trump and his administration have opposed the withdrawal from the outset; As the then President of the United States even spoke of sanctions against Iraq in the event of pressure to withdraw American troops.
With the start of the Iraq-US strategic dialogue in June 2016, one of the most important issues was how to establish military relations between Iraq and the United States. The Trump administration has resisted withdrawing US troops from Iraq, despite its 2016 election promises. Some factors prevented the withdrawal of US troops from the Trump administration. First, there was the White House assessment that with the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, the United States had taken a step back against Iran. Second, some US regional allies, such as Saudi Arabia, called for continued US presence in Iraq and the region. Third, there was a possibility that the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq would lead to a resurgence of ISIS. Fourth, some Trump administration officials, such as Mike Pompeo and Mark Speer, called for a continued US presence in Iraq; finally, some Iraqi political currents opposed the US withdrawal from Iraq. Government elements, Sunnis, Kurds and secular Shiites have expressed concern that US withdrawal from Iraq could halt the fight against ISIS, the withdrawal of other international coalition forces from Iraq, and create widespread economic problems as a result of US economic sanctions against Iraq. The Biden administration appears to have overcome these restrictions. During the meeting between Biden and Al-Kadhimi, the final statement emphasized the withdrawal of “US combat troops” from Iraq by the end of the year.
In fact, given the anti-American sentiment in Iraq and the emergence of a new wave of opposition to the US presence among militant groups and political currents, they consider the possibility that the political, military, security, and even economic costs of the US presence in Iraq have risen to such an extent after the assassinations of Sardar Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Mohandes that the US government has been forced to withdraw its forces from Iraq; but the emphasis on the withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq means that the withdrawal of the United States is not a complete and comprehensive withdrawal. In fact, by emphasizing the continued training of Iraqi military forces and intelligence-security assistance to fight ISIS, the United States intends to merely change the specific work of US military forces in Iraq. The fact is that the United States has political (in Iraq, the world’s largest embassy in Iraq), economic (presence of major US oil companies in Iraq), and security (concern over security threats from ISIS) interests in Iraq, and, unlike Afghanistan, a military presence. It will maintain itself in Iraq in an intangible way.