With the erosion of the Ukraine crisis, speculations about Russia’s use of atomic bombs have intensified. Will the Kremlin really use an atomic bomb? What are the consequences of using nuclear weapons, even of a tactical type?
Pak Sahafat News Agency, International Group: After eight months of the Ukraine crisis, in recent days we have seen an increase in speculations that Russia will use nuclear weapons against Kiev, although these speculations are not unrelated to the official positions of the Moscow authorities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has mentioned nuclear weapons several times since the start of the war. He once said in a televised speech: I am ordering the Minister of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces to place the deterrence forces of the Russian army in a special state of combat service.
The “deterrent” forces that Putin referred to include nuclear forces. Putin also recently said in a televised speech that he would not bluff about using nuclear weapons if Russian territory was threatened.
The direct threats of the senior officials of the Kremlin have caused, for the first time since 1945, the worries of an atomic crisis to reach the most serious possible situation. Even Americans and European countries have seriously entered the warning phase to Moscow. US President Joe Biden, in response to Putin’s threats, announced that they have formed a team of military and civilian experts to assess nuclear risks.
Also, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in an interview with the BBC: “When people believe that something like this is not a bluff, then we have to take it seriously.”
Russia’s nuclear attack; A weak scenario
Although Western authorities have reacted to Russia’s nuclear threat, but with a glance at these responses, we find that the assessment of the United States and the European Union is that the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war seems unlikely.
For example, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters at NATO headquarters last week that the US is watching for any signs of a worrisome change in Russia’s nuclear posture that could lead to a nuclear attack. Austin said: Currently, we have not seen any signs that would lead us to believe a nuclear attack.
“William Burns,” the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), also says: Given the current dangerous situation, we must take all Putin’s threats seriously. Currently, the US intelligence agency has no objective evidence that Putin intends to use tactical nuclear weapons.
There is no doubt that the use of the atomic bomb and countermeasures could start the third world war. Therefore, from the point of view of the observers, for several reasons, these speculations about the use of the atomic bomb and the occurrence of the third world war cannot become reality. If we consider history as a laboratory of political science and international relations, we will see that none of the conditions that led to the Khanman Soz wars are present in the current situation that would lead to a full-scale war between the East and the West.
Part of it is related to the difficult economic and political situation of Russia, and part of it is related to the fear of the West and the anti-war public opinion of their citizens. In connection with Russia’s domestic and international conditions, which do not allow an all-out war, it should be noted that the Russian economy is not able to withstand a full-scale war, and the erosion of the war in Ukraine and the enlargement of the geographical circle of the war will put Moscow in more trouble.
In this context, it is important to examine the strategy of China and India as two allies of Russia. As two strategic partners of Russia, Beijing and New Delhi, in line with their fluid foreign policy and the logic of economic power, do not want to enter into military issues. China and India have no desire to distance Russia from themselves, nor have they defined strategic interests in the Ukraine war to form a united front. In addition, these two countries are also worried about the secondary sanctions of the West if they accompany Russia.
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On the other hand, the leaders of the European and American countries are afraid of another world war with the experience of the first and second world wars in which 10 and 50 million people were killed respectively. In addition, the concern of Western citizens and the fear of Europe and America about the consequences of nuclear war and World War III is another reason that makes the possibility of its occurrence far from mind and even impossible.
Feasibility of limited, controlled and tactical nuclear attacks
In recent days, when speculations about Russia’s use of atomic bombs have increased, some believe that there is a possibility of using tactical bombs and limited nuclear attacks by Putin.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the President of the Autonomous Republic of Chechnya and a staunch ally of Vladimir Putin, believes that Moscow should consider the use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine.
James Cameron, a member of the Oslo Center for Nuclear Studies, rejects Putin’s use of Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal capable of attacking the United States and states: Moscow has “tactical” nuclear weapons less destructive than the Hiroshima bomb that it may use in the Ukraine war. According to Russia’s “de-escalation” nuclear doctrine of using a light nuclear weapon in a conventional conflict with the West, the Russian president may decide to detonate one of these “small” nuclear weapons in Ukrainian airspace or in the Black Sea.
It should be noted that tactical nuclear weapons are basically nuclear weapons that are used in battles for tactical purposes and the power to destroy dignity is much less than the huge destructive bombs that can destroy big cities like Moscow, Washington and London. These weapons and atomic bombs can either be dropped from airplanes, or fired from the ground, ships or submarines with rockets, or detonated somewhere by ground forces.
From the point of view of strategists and military experts, “tactical warheads” are compared to “strategic warheads” whose explosive power is approximately equal to 500 to 800 kilotons of dynamite and are designed to destroy large areas. These types of weapons are used for small attacks and special and close targets such as command centers or to destroy a column of tanks or aircraft carrier battle groups.
Unpredictable consequences of using the atom even tactically
Any use of nuclear weapons by Russia or any other actor cannot be limited and controlled with consequences. In addition to the destructive environmental effects of using nuclear weapons, it should be noted that the land distance between Moscow and Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, is about 800 kilometers. Even if Kiev is also attacked by a nuclear attack, its radiation can be dangerous for the Russian territories as well.
In addition, any nuclear attack will undoubtedly face a serious reaction from the West. Therefore, in the case of Moscow’s use of nuclear weapons, the Westerners will not be satisfied with merely condemning and issuing a resolution to increase sanctions. Such a situation could be the start of a nuclear conflict.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has also announced that the US will respond to any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and has explained to Moscow the disastrous consequences it will face. In an interview with the TV program “Face to the Media” of the “NBC” channel, he said: “If Russia crosses this line, there will be disastrous consequences for Russia, and the United States will respond decisively.”
Conclusion
History’s greatest tragedies have always started from seemingly small actions; The assassination of the Crown Prince of Austria started World War I, and the Nazi invasion of Poland led to World War II.
The West’s cautious approach in the war in Ukraine also stems from this fear. For example, although the United States and Europe have sent weapons and financial aid to Ukraine, they have so far sent troops and medium-range and long-range missiles that target Kiev and Moscow. Therefore, the Westerners do not give Ukraine a missile with a range of more than 300 km. For example, the range of the American Himars missile that was delivered to Ukraine is 80 km.