Pak Sahafat – The Knesset elections of the 120-member parliament of the Zionist regime have ended, while some evaluations predict four scenarios for this election and the stage after it.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency, “Al-Arabi Al-Jadid” news site, presenting an analysis of this election, based on which the Zionists elect the Prime Minister of the Zionist regime indirectly and through their representatives in the Knesset, wrote: After the party representatives are elected in the Knesset, one of the members of the party who has won the most votes in the Knesset is appointed as the prime minister and he must obtain the votes of at least 61 members of the Knesset to form the cabinet.
The head of the Israeli regime gives the party leader or the person responsible for forming the cabinet 28 days to introduce the new cabinet. The number of eligible voters in the current elections of the Israeli regime (which also includes military personnel and members of diplomatic missions) was 6 million 400 people, of whom 196 thousand were eligible to vote for the first time, and since the last election held in Last March, they voted for the first time.
Competition of 40 lists
40 electoral lists participated in the election contests of the Zionist regime, some of which are coalition lists that include more than one party; Such as the Religious Zionist Union, in which the “Religious Zionism” party led by “Bethsaliel Samutrich” and the “Jewish Power” party led by “Itmar Ben Goyer” participate.
Of these lists, only 13 lists have representatives in the current Knesset. However, the percentage of definite votes that each list must obtain from the total votes of the voters who participated in the elections is 3.25% of the total votes, which is estimated at 150,000 votes based on last year’s elections. If a party gets less than these votes, it cannot enter the parliament and win a seat.
The Arabs in the occupied territories constituted 17% of the voters in the parliamentary elections, which are currently in power until the formation of the new parliament. They are represented in the form of three organizations in the current parliament. One of these three organizations is “Fahresti Mohidat” headed by “Mansour Abbas” who has 4 seats in the current parliament and participates in the current coalition cabinet. The second organization belongs to the “Democratic National Solidarity” party led by “Sami Abu Shehadeh” who participated in this election alone and without coalition with other Arab parties. The third organization is the “Arab Reform Front and Movement” coalition led by “Ayman Oudeh”.
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On the other hand, the Haredim (extreme Orthodox religious movement) only account for 11% of the total votes in the current parliamentary elections, but they have 15 representatives in the current parliament through two lists. This is the arrangement of the current parliament, which will continue to exist until the formation of the new parliament based on the election results on Tuesday.
Key post-election scenarios
According to the polls, there is a balance between the opposition camp led by Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the Likud Party, and the Change (Reform) camp, led by Yair Lapid, the Prime Minister of Progress (interim) and the head of the Yesh Atid party. Observers have predicted four scenarios for the elections and the possibility of forming a new cabinet of the Zionist regime.
The first scenario, which is close to the predictions of the polls, is that the cabinet headed by Netanyahu will be formed with the participation of the current pro-His camp consisting of “Haredi” parties and the Religious Zionist Alliance; Of course, if this camp succeeds in winning at least 61 Knesset seats.
The second scenario is the formation of a cabinet led by Yair Lapid. If he can get enough Knesset seats to form a cabinet (61 seats) without Arab parties and without their support, but with the support of one of the Haredi parties, which is a weak possibility, the cabinet will be formed under the leadership of Yair Lapid.
The third scenario, which also has a weak probability, is the formation of a cabinet led by Benny Gantz, the head of the “General Camp” party (or in other words, the camp of the generals), which will repeat a coalition cabinet like Naftali Bent-Yair Lapid’s cabinet; Even if Gantz’s “General Camp” party gets fewer seats than “Yesh Atid” which is led by Yair Lapid, the (interim) Prime Minister of the Advancement of Affairs, relying on the participation and support of Haredi parties.
The last scenario is the formation of a unity cabinet between “Gantz” and “Netanyahu” under the pretext of removing the Israeli regime from the political crisis, but on the condition that Netanyahu and Gantz take turns as its prime minister in a rotating mechanism. This is a scenario that Gantz rejects.
But if the balance between Netanyahu’s camp and his rival’s camp is repeated and neither Netanyahu nor Lapid can form a new cabinet, at that time new elections will be announced in which Lapid will again be the interim prime minister until the new elections.