Some Turkish economists and analysts believe that the Erdogan government deliberately raised the dollar based on a strange scenario.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency International Group, the economic crisis in Turkey continues. Each US dollar has reached 16 and a half lira, which is unprecedented in the history of the Turkish economy.
The unprecedented rise in the value of the dollar against the Turkish lira has made many food and basic necessities more expensive.
The field report of the National Gazette shows that in just four months, the prices of many foods, such as dairy products, liquid oils, sugar, flour and bread, have risen so much that people no longer have the purchasing power.
The daily quotes liquid oil as the mainstay of high-priced goods, and reports that a 5-liter container of liquid sunflower seed oil in Turkey has risen from 68 lira to 100 lira in just three months. Also, the price of flour has doubled in 4 months.
Everyone asks: What is the solution to lower the dollar? “Only the ballot box can bring down the dollar,” said People’s Republican Party leader Kemal Klçdaro Oghlu.
Klçdaro Oghlu believes that the defeat of Erdoan and Bagçeli in the upcoming elections is certain and that peace and stability will return to the Turkish market as soon as the current government is ousted.
But Ms. Meral Aksner spoke louder and said to Erdogan: “With your decisions, the country is on fire, enough. Let go of the collars of these people!”
Is the government making the dollar more expensive?
Many Turkish newspapers and news sites use these headlines these days: The dollar got out of control, the dollar broken, it is enough to reach the people and … etc. But in addition to these emotional headlines, news and theories are occasionally published, the common denominator of which is the accusation of the government from the Justice and Development Party of deliberately using methods to increase the exchange rate of the dollar. These Turkish economists and analysts believe that the Erdogan government, based on a strange scenario, deliberately raised the dollar.
Professor Mahvi Egilmez, an economist and former Deputy Minister of Economy of Turkey, said: “The economic team of the Erdogan government had such a scenario: curbing inflation by reducing interest rates on bank facilities. But how? Like this: When bank interest rates fall, the exchange rate automatically rises and reciprocally, as the exchange rate rises, exports rise and imports fall. As the import of goods increases with the increase of the exchange rate, domestic production replaces it and the current account deficit becomes the current account surplus. Inflation will also decrease as domestic production begins to replace imported inputs. This scenario is very optimistic. Why? For a simple reason. When they lowered the interest rates on bank facilities, they were unable to stabilize the rate of appreciation of the dollar. What was the result? The increase was much higher than expected and the dollar dropped. “As a result, inflation has reached a point where the Turkish national currency has lost its value.”
The Turkish economist continued: “In one session, some students jokingly ask John Minrad Keynes, a well-known American economist: Professor! If the facts change, what will you do with your theory? As a rule, they expect; Keynes says my theory is very wise and I stand by my word. But he replied: If the facts change, I will change my theory. But unfortunately, in our country, the economic officials of the government, instead of constantly changing their opinions based on the surrounding realities, try to force the reality to obey their own theories! “Such a thing is impossible in the world of economics.”
The reference to the consequences of the crisis in the Turkish economy has also been widely reported in many foreign media.
AFP reported that the rising dollar in Turkey has led to a shortage of drugs in pharmacies, and some profiteers, importing drugs, have kept previous exchange rates suspended in order to sell at a new rate in the market.
Read more: Turkey is embroiled in an intertwined crisis: https://www.paksahafat.com/en/?p=16286
On the same subject, Ghamze Taşçr, Ankara’s representative in the Turkish Parliament, based on reports based on statistics and information from the Pharmacists’ Union, predicts that in the first quarter of next year, the price of medicine in Turkey will fall due to currency fluctuations.
The Financial Times also notes that the current economic crisis has put the Erdogan government and his party in a difficult position and that the opposition is in a better position.
Economic war and siege
One of the important issues related to the causes of the economic crisis in Turkey is: The opposition blames the government for the current situation, but the government and its allied party claim that there is a war and a siege.
The government of Baghcheli, the leader of the far-right National Movement party, has claimed that an economic war and siege has been started by foreign enemies against Turkey, and with the help and cooperation of the domestic opposition, it has launched a wave of inflation!
In the end it should be said, Leaders of all political parties opposed to Erdogan have repeatedly stressed the need for early elections. However, Erdogan and Bagcili have explicitly stated that the Turkish general election will be held according to the official calendar in June 2023 and there is no news of early elections. As a result, it can be predicted that 2022 will be a year full of political tensions and conflicts between the government and the opposition parties.