As Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s hopes of maintaining his cabinet-based coalition waned, he and second-term Prime Minister Yair Lapid agreed to dissolve the Israeli Knesset and hold early elections. Now Netanyahu is one step closer to power.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency International Group, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, the two main members of the current Israeli cabinet coalition that formed the coalition on Monday, concluded that the current coalition could not survive and announced that the bill to dissolve the Knesset would be unveiled next Monday. The move comes as the Likud party was scheduled to unveil the Knesset dissolution bill on Wednesday, June 22, 2022.
Reasons for “Bennett” and “Lapid” frustration
The 61-seat cabinet coalition lost one of its seats in April, Idina Silman, a member of the Yemina faction, and with his departure, the number of opposition seats rose to 54 from 60. Reina Zoubi then announced his intention to leave the cabinet, but this did not happen due to threats against him, who is of Palestinian origin. Nair Auerbach then announced that he would leave the cabinet, and with the departure of Auerbach, which is scheduled to take effect this week, the coalition will have 59 seats, compared to 55 for the opposition.
But the important point here is that in the last two weeks, “Reina Zaabi” and “Mazen Ghanayem” from the list of Arab allies led by “Mansour Abbas” voted with the cabinet opponents and their votes were not cast in the coalition basket. It was this incident that led the cabinet, despite its strong desire, to fail to pass the bill to continue the implementation of internal laws in 1948 in the Zionist settlements of the West Bank. Because the votes of “Zaabi” and “Mazen Ghanayem” were not with the coalition, and on the other hand, the joint Arab list headed by “Ayman Odeh” also voted against it. At this stage, the votes of the Knesset representatives are practically an individual vote, not a party vote announced by the party.
For this reason, “Bennett” and “Lapid” practically saw the coalition as a void, and in these circumstances, it is better to dissolve it than to continue. In announcing their decision, they also stated that one of the reasons for choosing the present time to dissolve the Knesset is the remaining implementation of the Occupied Territories Law in the West Bank settlements. Because with the dissolution of the Knesset, this bill will remain the same until the next Knesset is formed, and its implementation will be practically extended for another 3 months; An action that could lead the votes of the West Bank settlers to “Bennett” and “Lapid” in the next elections.
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Bennett: The Israeli cabinet will probably fall before Lapid’s prime minister
Possible scenarios
Dissolution of Knesset and early elections with Lapid Prime Minister
The first option considered by Bennett and Lapid is to dissolve the Knesset and hold early elections. The option that Likud was looking for before the current situation. The important point is that at present, according to the arrangements mentioned above, the bill to dissolve the Knesset will be presented by each party. Accordingly, if the bill is passed, the first scenario is that according to the agreement reached between them at the time of the formation of the Bennett-Lapid cabinet coalition in 2021, the time for elections will be 3 months after the dissolution, which is the current situation. Due to interference with Jewish holidays, it will be postponed by 2 weeks on October 25, 2022.
During this time, “Yair Lapid” will be in charge of current affairs as the Prime Minister of the Provisional Government.
Vote on the no-confidence bill in the cabinet and elect a new cabinet
But with the rise of the opposition over the past two weeks and the increase in opposition seats, the option has been strengthened that if the opposition can win a majority of votes, they can form a new cabinet without dissolving the Knesset by voting on a no-confidence motion.
This will happen if the opposition in the cabinet can get 61 votes for this purpose. The opposition currently holds 55 seats, and they are six seats away from reaching that majority.
According to reports, Netanyahu is in talks with some members of the current cabinet to give them new concessions, to pull over some of the seats in the coalition, and to form a new cabinet without dissolving the Knesset. According to the Yedioth newspaper, Netanyahu has entered into negotiations with the Benigants and, as in 2020, has promised him a caretaker prime minister and a war ministry in a non-prime ministerial term. The difference is that Netanyahu promised Gantz that he would give Gantz his first term as prime minister.
Under the current circumstances, what is certain is the collapse of a cabinet that, in its most fragile state, with 61 seats, lasted less than a year. But dissolving the Knesset is the most likely option after the collapse, as a change in the parties’ approach will hurt their credibility on the one hand, and must be based on trusting Netanyahu on the other, which is completely unreasonable and logical. Because “Netanyahu” has shown that he is not trustworthy at all and whoever trusts him will fall.
But the scenario of forming a new cabinet without dissolving the Knesset is also a possible option, and its occurrence is not far-fetched because the arrangement of seats is very close to each other.
In spite of all this, what is important is that the political instability of the Zionist regime has deepened to such an extent that no one can find a way out of it. The current instability is the result of Netanyahu’s partisanship and one-sidedness, which has turned some of his supporters into serious opponents.