Surveys show that separatist sentiment among Republican supporters in the southern United States is growing and growing. But what could be the consequences of such an approach for the America?
Mehdi Poursafa: In April 1865, when General Robert Lee, commander of the defeated Army, surrendered his Confederate forces and his forces to General Grant, the American Civil War ended with 400,000 casualties; an important question was on the minds of all politicians in this country. Will the American Civil War be repeated?
Developments in the United States in the following years, including high economic growth and its becoming the world’s first industrial power in the early twentieth century, as well as the enactment of various laws to integrate different racial minorities, kept the likelihood of such an event to a minimum. On the other hand, the power and control of the federal security and military institutions in the United States is tens of times greater than in the nineteenth century, and the probability that such a movement will be allowed to form at all may be close to zero.
However, given all this, the process of economic and social change since the 2008 economic crisis, as well as the presidency of Donald Trump, has triggered major political divisions in the United States that cannot be easily resolved; the gaps that happen to leak into the US political arena are the latent capacities of the federal system.
Federalism is a strong point or a platform for disintegration
The United States of America is a country whose legislative and governing system is inevitably based on a kind of division of power between state and central governments. This division of power, established through a customary legal system, sometimes causes such complexity in the political arena that it can turn a normal course of governance into a crisis, an example of this is clearly seen in the interpretation of the bylaws and the manner in which the results of the recent US presidential election were announced in different states.
Of course, the Americans claim that such a system can guarantee the full freedom of its citizens, but the fact is that in the era of political dichotomy after Trump, this system may become a weakness.
There are many signs of a serious political and social dichotomy in the United States but perhaps an example is a recent poll conducted jointly by the Yoga Institute and the Bright Line Watch, which found that two-thirds of Republicans in the southern states are in favor of secession from the United States and alliances with neighboring states.
The poll found that approximately 66 percent of participating Republicans from 13 South American states, including Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida, want to break away from the federal government and form their own union. Surveyers surveyed the Southern Union, including Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Interestingly, by reviewing the names of these states at a distance, a historical event comes to life in everyone’s mind. These states are on the same list that left the United States in 1862 when Abraham Lincoln became president. This support for separatism has not only declined since Trump’s defeat in the presidential election, but has also increased. Is history really repeating itself in any other way?
What is the state of affairs?
Of course, this poll cannot be a reason to start a civil war tomorrow or a few months or years later. The US Constitution prohibits states from leaving the union, and the federal government’s security and military capabilities do not allow it to do so. However, the starting point of the crisis can be considered as events related to the legislative and governmental apparatus of each state.
The fact is that during the 2020 election campaign, although the Democrats were able to achieve a significant victory in the presidential and congressional elections and in fact take over two important executive and legislative pillars, in return the Republicans won in the state legislative and executive institutions. As mentioned, given the nature and powers of state governments, the party has a great deal of privilege, and separatism is growing rapidly among its supporters.
The importance of the states increases when there is a major obstruction in Washington on issues unrelated to defense and foreign policy. Ideally for running each state, the office of state governor, House of Representatives, and state Senate should be given to one party. Currently, 38 states in the United States have 23 states in the hands of Republicans and 15 states in the hands of Democrats.
Twelve states are also at high risk of becoming politically locked in due to serious conflicts of interest between the two sides. Of course, in the past the situation was sometimes worse than it is now, for example in the 90s and during the presidency of Bill Clinton 31 states were in a state of political lock, but the reality was that at that time the United States had such a political dipole, especially at low levels. National solidarity on important goals can be seen in almost all areas, and even challenging issues such as the impeachment of the president did not upset the situation, but in the current situation the situation has changed.
There are many reasons for this debate, but perhaps the most serious is the fear of being digested in the economic and social developments that have put whites in the corner of the ring.
State repression under the pretext of upholding the law
Once upon a time, many white Republican states could be proud of their way of life and doing business independently of the central government, but now nothing remains. Many major industries have moved to Mexico, Canada, and even China and India, and new industries are largely located in Democratic states such as Washington and California.
With the defeat of the Trump administration, there does not seem to be any news of a Republican administration in the medium term. The response of Republican states to these conditions is to use state legal powers for a kind of revolt against the central government. Under the principle of “right of precedence” in party law in the United States, a state government can repeal that law and replace it with another law if it opposes a law passed by a city council.
In this way, not only will the Republican states resist the central government, but they will repeal any legislation passed by Democratic-majority cities within their jurisdiction. There are now numerous examples of such laws being repealed by state governments and Republican Conservatives. Most city dwellers, meanwhile, are Democrats, and suburban areas are reserved for Republican supporters.
This kind of rift is reminiscent of the rift that existed during the American Civil War. Democrats in big cities and Republicans in counties and states where part of the population was rural.
The scope of this gap is widening day by day. Georgia, for example, is seeking to enact laws to limit the voting power of minorities and blacks to prevent Democrats from repeating the same victory as the 2020 election. Some other Republican states have passed very strict laws against any street protests that even allow them to be overtaken by passing vehicles when the roads are closed.
As for the promise of wage increases, some state governments are seeking to ban any increase in the minimum wage. Even more recently, some states have outlawed federal restrictions on preventing the spread of the coronavirus, such as closing businesses and closing restaurants, and making it a no-brainer.
This list will definitely get longer over time.
What will the southern states do?
Given the current situation, the only way to save Democratic cities from the exercise of Republican legal power is through federal intervention. Given the current situation, the only way to save Democratic cities from the exercise of Republican legal power is through federal intervention.
Of course, this plan is currently out of consideration with the opposition of the Republicans, but it is not clear how long this will be possible. The Biden government is also seeking legal redress for securing the minimum wage law through the 2022 budget law.
Naturally, such actions will not be to the liking of Republicans at all, so it is understandable that with the defeat of Trump, separatist tendencies have grown in them. Republicans know that as Democrats continue to dominate Congress or the White House, they are less likely to resist federal bills. It seems that they are currently waiting for the mid-term elections of 2022 and the presidency of 2024, but what would happen if the Democrats still won?
Can we expect an event similar to the Separatist wars to take place and the US National Guard to head south to quell the white insurgency? The likelihood of that happening right now may not be high, but the Trump era has shown that anything can happen in the United States under acute circumstances.